Saturday, 31 August 2013

The Murder of Growth- Part 2

In my last blog which is a prequel to this one, I wrote about how Mr. Nehru and his socialist principles led the economy of this nation to a fully blow debacle. I received various feedbacks on the same, mostly converging to the argument that my dissertation was mainly theoretical and not political. People are right if they expected me to address political issues too when I talked about the failure of a federal government. Some also argued that 1962 war with China and our miserable defeat in the same gave a major blow not only to this country’s economy but also to its self esteem. I agree that China war was a disaster, but its seeds were grown over a decade before it actually happened, most important of them being 1959 Tibetan uprising which Nehru govt supported and issues over Himalayan borders near Sikkim which was not a part of India then. (Sikkim was under the suzerainty of India, which controlled its external affairs, defense, diplomacy and communications, but Sikkim otherwise retained administrative autonomy. It became an Indian state only in 1975.) While Indo-Chinese war per se could a subject of another blog, it certainly isn’t the excuse with which Nehruvian government could vindicate itself. Our economy could have been saved despite the war, but it wasn’t. The point here is that I did not focus on politics in my earlier blog as Nehru never experienced any vote deficit. He was at the helm of Congress party which literally ruled the country unequivocally at his times, thanks to people’s belief that Congress got this country free from British rule. No political crisis occurred in his era and so, it can be said that all policies he advocated were free from any political pressures or majority-deficit encumbrances. The political crisis came in his daughter’s era and hence, this blog is completely political !!

While I can’t say that I am against Indira Gandhi (IG), I must purport that blunders in economic policies continued in her era too. By the time she became PM in 1966 following death of Lal Bahadur Shastri (LBS), Congress was already split in two factions, the socialists led by IG and the conservatives led by Morarji Desai. The internal problems showed immediately in the 1967 election, where Congress lost nearly 60 seats winning 297 seats in the 545-seat Lok Sabha. IG had to accommodate Desai as Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance. In 1969, after many disagreements with Desai, the Indian National Congress finally split. She ruled with support from Socialist and Communist Parties for the next two years. The fundamentally socialist upbringing by her father and her complete political dependency on leftists at the very beginning of her political career made its due impact on her mind and our country started racing, not walking, towards becoming a soviet clone.

The results started showing almost immediately. Her government issued an ordinance ('Banking Companies (Acquisition and Transfer of Undertakings) Ordinance, 1969') and nationalized the 14 largest commercial banks in the country with effect from the midnight of 19 July 1969. These banks contained 85% of bank deposits in the country. Jayaprakash Narayan described this step as a "masterstroke of political sagacity”. I am currently reading one Nani Palkhiwala’s book called ‘We, The Nation’ where he argues that ordinances are to be used only as an exceptional last resorts when the legislative assembly couldn’t function properly. However, IG used these ordinances as her routine lawmaking tactic, challenging the Indian constitution itself. A second dose of nationalization of 6 more commercial banks followed in 1980. The stated reason for the nationalization was to give the government more control of credit delivery. With this second dose, the government controlled around 91% of the banking business of India. Can you imagine? 91% of the nation’s economy being controlled by a single person!

The period of 1967–75 was characterized by socialist ascendency in India which culminated in 1976 with the official declaration of state socialism. IG not only abandoned the short lived liberalization program started by LBS but also aggressively expanded the public sector with new licensing requirements and other restrictions for industry. She re-launched the Five-Year plans in 1969, which were stalled by LBS to start damage control by focusing on annual plans with micro-planning. Having been re-elected in 1971, Gandhi proceeded to nationalize the coal, steel, copper, refining, cotton textiles, and insurance industries. During the 1971 war against Pakistan, foreign owned private oil companies had refused to supply fuel to the Indian Navy and Indian Air Force. In response, IG nationalized oil companies too in 1973. After nationalization, the oil majors such as the IOCL, HPCL and BPCL had to keep a minimum stock level of oil, to be supplied to the military when needed. Gandhi claimed that only "clear vision, iron will and the strictest discipline" can remove poverty. If at all there is someone who still doesn’t see this as socialist, let me tell him that she also signed the Indo–Soviet Treaty with Soviet Union in August 1971, which was in stark deviation from India's previous position of Non-alignment in the Cold War.

On 12 June 1975, the High Court of Allahabad declared IG’s election to the Lok Sabha void on grounds of electoral malpractice, since it was held that she misappropriated government funds for her election expenses and campaigning. The court thus ordered her to be removed from her seat in Parliament and banned her from running in elections for six years. Since a PM has to be a member of either Lok Sabha or Rajya Sabha, this decision effectively removed her from PMO. She refused to resign and expressed her willingness to challenge HC order in Supreme Court. Nationwide protest movements started following her autocratic leadership. IG govt recommended then President Fakhruddin Ali Ahmed to declare a state of emergency, which he immediately declared on 26 June 1975. What an obedience! Within a few months, President's Rule was imposed on the two opposition party ruled states of Gujarat and Tamil Nadu too, thereby bringing the entire country under her direct control. Now she could do anything!

Police were granted powers to impose curfews and indefinitely detain citizens. All publications were subjected to substantial censorship by government. Impending legislative assembly elections were indefinitely postponed, with all opposition-controlled state governments being removed by virtue of the constitutional provision allowing for a dismissal of a state government on recommendation of the state's governor. President Ahmed also issued ordinances that did not require debate in the Parliament, allowing IG to rule by decree. Rule by decree allows the ruler to arbitrarily create law, without approval by a legislative assembly. So, it’s not new for this country that the President is henpecked by the head of Congress party. As if this analogy is not good enough for someone to know whom I am talking about, let me give one more similar analogy. IG openly favored her son Sanjay, who had no qualifications or credentials to satisfy the needs of the offices he headed. In 1971, when IG govt proposed the production of a "People's car"—an efficient indigenous automobile that middle-class Indians could afford, Sanjay was awarded the contract and the exclusive production license though he had no experience, design proposals or tie-ins with any corporation. I wonder how many know that ‘Maruti’ company was Sanjay’s foundation. Even while he had not been elected and held no office, Sanjay used to exercise his influence with cabinet ministers, high-level government officers and police officers. In one famous example, I. K.  Gujral resigned from the Ministry of I&B when Sanjay attempted to direct the affairs of his ministry and give him orders. He was promptly replaced by V. C. Shukla who was Sanjay’s confidant. In another incident, after popular Bollywood singer Kishore Kumar refused to attend a function of the Indian Youth Congress, his songs were banned on All India Radio upon Sanjay's insistence. Look who’s ruling the country!

IG, being the ultimate ruler, shackled Indian economy further by undertaking a massive redistribution program. The provisions included rapid enforcement of land ceilings, housing for landless laborers, the abolition of bonded labor and a moratorium on the debts of the poor. Lenin did the same in Bolshevik Russia. Stalin did the same in Soviet Russia.

In 1977 elections that followed emergency, Congress party was crushed totally. Indira and Sanjay Gandhi both lost their seats, and Congress was cut down to 153 seats (compared with 350 in the previous Lok Sabha), 92 of which were in the south. Janata Dal claimed victory and came to power. But a seasoned politician by now, IG knew her way out. When the new govt ordered for her arrest on the charge of planning a conspiracy of killing their leaders in jail during emergency, she gave so melodramatic speeches that people almost forgot that this was the same lady which once ruled them mercilessly. She knew very well that Janata Dal govt was multi-aided and could tumble at any time giving her a chance to reclaim what she had lost. Her arrest and long-running trial gained her great sympathy from many people. Soon, the differences amongst the leaders of new govt surfaced and Desai resigned in June 1979 as PM after Charan Singh and Raj Narain formed their own breakaway party. Charan Singh was appointed Prime Minister, by President Reddy, after IG promised him that Congress would support his government from outside. Just after a short interval, Congress withdrew support and President Reddy dissolved Parliament in the winter of 1979. Before the 1980 elections, IG approached the then Shahi Imam of Jama Masjid and entered into an agreement with him on the basis of 10-point programme to secure the support of the Muslim votes. In the elections held in January, Congress was returned to power with a landslide majority. Shrewd, isn’t she?

Her audacity went on increasing after this victory and she even challenged the global leaders as well. I remember reading in a biographical piece on Richard Nixon (US president 1969-74) that he used to call her “witch”. During 1971 Bangla-war when US openly supported Pakistan and mobilized their seventh fleet of navy (incl. USS Enterprise, the longest naval vessel in the world) to Indian ocean, Indian bureaucracy started shaking legs and Indian media started advocating govt to begin talks with US, but IG wasn’t moved a bit. She flew to Russia, talked to Brezhnev, Russian Premier, and declared from Moscow radio only that India was not afraid of US navy and was ready to fight. Within 2 days, Russian navy came to Indian seas armed with nuclear missiles and US immediately retreated. Nixon later wrote- “this woman suckered us”! With the same impudence, she went ahead with Operation Blue Star which finally turned back on her and she was assassinated by her sikh bodyguards in 1984.  Her politically ambitious son Sanjay had already died in a plane crash in 1980 and his younger brother Rajiv, a passive guy who otherwise would have pursued his aviation career as a pilot, came to power. India got its youngest and best looking prime minister ever!

Rajiv did try to liberalize the economy and commenced reducing the restrictions of license raj. He also brought onboard Sam Pitroda and paved the way of Indian telecommunication revolution, which was an amazing achievement and he deserves full credit for that. But, after reading Rajiv’s biography, I am of the opinion that he was still naïve to understand economy and instead tried to become larger than life character. He was a professional pilot and his ambitions too weren’t any lesser than horizon. Instead of totally focusing on what he had started rightly, he again resorted to traditional five-year plans, delegated the administrative functions to his confidants and himself plunged into world politics. Sri Lanka was his special attraction!

This small island was extremely delirious for both US and USSR, due to its strategically important geographical location in Indian ocean. Rajiv initially succumbed to political pressure from his south Indian alleys and supported LTTE and set up camps in India to militarily train the LTTE extremists to make them able to fight with Lankan army. He was of course persuaded by Russia for the same, as Sri Lanka could have been a good military base for Russia as an answer to US owned island Diago Garcia in Indian ocean, where US had placed their nuclear missiles having capacity to hit any major city in Asia. For this favor, Rajiv received regularly huge moneys from Russia and KGB. After his death, in 1992, two Indian newspapers, Times of India and The Hindu, had published reports alleging that Rajiv Gandhi had received funds from the KGB. The Russian government confirmed this disclosure and defended the payments as necessary for the Soviet ideological interest.

However, soon Rajiv understood that things had started slipping out of his hands, as LTTE became too powerful and went out of his control. Western countries including UK and US started directly providing arms and ammunitions to LTTE to turn it against India. Rajiv tried to regain supremacy by military action on LTTE rebels. Indian army intervened with full force in 1988 Maldives military coup and helped Maldives army to gain control over LTTE sponsored fundamentalists. Also, Rajiv deployed Indian Peace Keeping Force (IPKF) to Sri Lanka to restore order and signed a pact with Lankan govt, ordering militants to surrender weapons and come for a political dialogue. RAW had completely underestimated LTTE’s power, which later killed Rajiv in 1991 during his election campaign in Tamil Nadu. I was shocked to learn that his killers had taken their military training in RAW’s Nainital camp during the time India supported LTTE.

Following Rajiv’s death, India got its most economically prudent prime minister - P V Narsinha Rao. As per me, he is the best Prime Minister of India (in terms of his contribution to national economy) till date and I would rank him even above A B Vajpayee. It’s his misfortune that Babri Masjid demolition happened during his tenure and Congress made him sacrificial lamb to save party’s face, otherwise he would have been given due credit for 1991 economic reforms that transformed the socialist economy of this country into a meaningful, competitive and efficient economy. Some coin this paradigm shift as capitalistic, but I would say it was a controlled liberalization, just the way it was necessary at that time. He was the man who literally carried Congress on his shoulders for 5 years after Rajiv’s death. But Congress is such a mean organization that it did not even allow Rao’s body to be taken inside AICC building, after his death in 2004.

1991 happened, Manmohan Singh took the credit, our economy survived and this nation was saved from the ignominy of bankruptcy.
…and we are back to 1991 again today !!

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